Headline: Edmonton’s Housing Market Shows Early Signs of Cooling as Inventory Rises
Over the past month, Edmonton’s real estate market has continued its remarkable run—but with a subtle shift that’s caught the eye of buyers, sellers and local agents alike. After more than two years of rapid price gains and frenetic bidding wars, the latest data from REALTORS® Association of Edmonton suggests that the balance of power is inching back toward buyers. Inventory is on the rise, sales growth is moderating, and while benchmark prices are still climbing, the pace of increases has slowed. If you’ve been watching Edmonton housing closely, you’ll recognize these as classic early warning signs of a market transition. Here’s what happened in the last 30 days—and what it means for anyone looking to buy or sell in our city.
1. Inventory Is Climbing—Finally
One of the most noticeable changes in our July numbers was a jump in active listings. Inventory rose from roughly 5,250 homes at the end of June to about 6,050 at the end of July—a nearly 15% increase. That’s the largest month-over-month gain we’ve seen since late 2021. Historically low stocks have been a major driver of Edmonton’s double-digit price gains so far this cycle, so even a modest increase in supply is bound to grab buyers’ attention. More homes on the market means more choices for shoppers—and a bit less urgency.
2. New Listings Outpacing Sales
Not only did active inventory rise, but new listings are outpacing overall sales in July. We saw roughly 2,900 new homes come to market, compared with 2,600 sales recorded. Sales dipped 4% compared with June and were essentially flat year-over-year, signaling that we aren’t just slowing down from a seasonal standpoint; transaction growth is stalling in spite of a steady flow of new supply. In plain terms, buyers aren’t snapping up every new listing the way they did a year ago.
3. Days on Market Tick Up
If you’ve been watching your inbox for alerts, you may have noticed homes taking a little longer to move. The average days on market (DOM) increased from 41 days in June to 47 days in July. While still quite healthy compared with long-term averages (pre-pandemic Edmonton averaged closer to 60+ days), the uptick reflects how buyers are shifting from a fear-of-missing-out mindset to a more deliberate, comparison-shopping approach.
4. Benchmark Prices Are Still Rising, but More Slowly
Edmonton’s MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) benchmark price hit $429,000 in July—up 2.1% over June but only 5.8% higher than July last year. For context, year-over-year increases were running in the double digits as recently as this spring. Detached homes are now benchmarking at $515,000 (up 2.5% month-over-month), while condos are at $230,000 (up 1.7%). Those are still solid gains, but the trendline is visibly flattening.
5. Months of Inventory Creeping Up
One of the best ways to gauge supply and demand is to track “months of inventory,” which tells us how long it would take to sell the current stock at the current sales pace. In July, Edmonton’s months of inventory rose to 2.3 months, up from 1.8 months in June. Anything below the 3- to 4-month range is traditionally considered a seller’s market; above that, it begins to tilt in favour of buyers. We’re not there yet, but the direction is clear.
6. Regional Variations Are Growing
It’s important to remember that Edmonton is not monolithic—and we saw some interesting sub-market shifts in the latest data:
• Central Neighbourhoods: Inventory remains tight downtown and in mature neighbourhoods like Garneau and Strathcona. Here, months of inventory are still below two months, meaning competition remains brisk.
• Suburban Areas: Communities in the southwest (Windermere, Ellerslie) and northwest (The Hamptons, Edgemont) saw inventory climb north of three months, giving buyers more negotiating power and longer decision windows.
• Entry-Level Homes: Condos and starter homes continue to move faster than luxury properties. The condo segment saw month-over-month sales drop only 1.5%, versus a 6% dip in homes over $700,000.
7. Mortgage Rates and Buyer Sentiment
While mortgage rates have stabilized around the high-5% to low-6% range, affordability is under pressure. Some buyers who rushed into the market earlier this year to lock in lower rates are pausing as they compare their options. Sellers who priced aggressively in Spring 2023 are finding that buyers expect a little more room to negotiate, especially now that inventory options have improved.
What This Means for Buyers
If you’ve been sidelined by bidding wars and multiple offers, now is your moment. With more homes to choose from and less frenzy per listing, buyers can take their time to:
• Shop around without the fear of missing out
• Ask for property-condition adjustments or price concessions
• Negotiate more favourable closing dates and inclusions (e.g., appliances, window coverings)
• Get pre-qualified so you can move quickly when the right home appears
What This Means for Sellers
For sellers, rising inventory doesn’t mean you’re doomed—it simply means you need a sharper strategy:
• Price competitively from Day One. Overpricing by 5–10% relative to comparable listings can backfire as buyers click through other new listings.
• Invest in curb appeal and presentation. The homes generating the most traffic are those that look move-in ready and offer flexible showings.
• Work with an experienced agent who understands the shifting dynamics and can time your listing for maximum exposure.
Looking Ahead
I expect these early signals of cooling to continue through late summer, with possible stabilization in early fall if interest rates hold steady. If mortgage rates dip again, we could see a renewed surge of activity that absorbs the extra inventory. Conversely, if rates rise further, inventory could climb to 3–4 months of supply, tipping the market squarely in buyers’ favour.
In the meantime, my advice is simple: Sellers should strike while the iron is hot but price realistically, and buyers should leverage the increased supply to negotiate the best possible terms. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell or simply stay informed, this shift in Edmonton’s market is the story of the month—and it’s one you’ll want to watch closely as we head into fall.
Have questions about what this means for your specific neighbourhood or property type? Reach out anytime—I’m always happy to chat about the numbers, interpret the trends and help you make your next move with confidence.
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